fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo

Here’s what it looks like: There are four candidate betting signals: We don’t have to pick just one. RAPTOR's top five players, four ways. We’d use ‘Away Win’ if we’re ultimately interested in moneyline bets, and ‘Result’ if we’re interested in betting on the spread. As you can see, RAPTOR generally loves perimeter players and wings, such as Curry, Harden, Leonard and Chris Paul, although some frontcourt players like Jokic, Anthony Davis and Draymond Green are also rated highly by the system. It highly values two-way wings such as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. To this end we created the fivethirtyeight R package of data and code behind the stories and interactives at the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com. For more detail on past RAPTORs, including the breakdown of box and on-off components, you can download files that list the regular season and playoffs separately, or a version that combines a player’s appearances over the course of the entire season5 into one file. Podcast: Nate Silver On The Power Of Elo. Finally, we can use multivariable analysis to see whether the two algorithms provide complementary prognostic information. Actually, two sets of predictions: “RAPTOR” and “ELO”. Has anyone else checked out the playoff forecast over at FiveThirtyEight? Namely, these statistics assume that player performance is largely linear and additive, that is, that you can roughly add up the ratings from individual players to project team performance. For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each algorithm. Especially on 2-pointers; the current data for nearest defender on 3-point attempts is not very reliable or predictive. 3. My dataset consists of 679 NBA games played between Oct. 22, 2019, and Jan. 24, 2020. Ideally, the distribution of residuals should be centered at 0 (accurate) and as narrow as possible (precise). We’ve got two sets of predictions here, generated by perhaps the most well-known statistician in the world. (Because Of Course.) 1.8k. It would be their first AFC East crown since 1995. correctly predicted had an edge over the Golden State Warriors, didn’t fully believe the projection ourselves at the time, What The COVID-19 Vaccine Means For The Political Battles To Come. Thus, the current version of the Raptors is associated with an Elo rating that would peg them not as a 58-win team, but somewhere in the mid-60s instead. They’re redundant with the point spreads, and I much prefer using the spreads, as they’re on the same scale as the response variable. RAPTOR WAR. Contribute to fivethirtyeight/nfl-elo-game development by creating an account on GitHub. They predict the opposite outcome in 3/6 games. CARM-Elo (2). Sep. 18, 2015. If neither is, they’re essentially worthless. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets: Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets; mlb_elo: MLB Elo; nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA; nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions; nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings; nba_raptor: NBA Raptor; nfl_elo: The … That is, reduce how many points the opposing team scores; positive defensive ratings are good in RAPTOR and negative ones are bad. FiveThirtyEight's player-based forecasting model RAPTOR gives the Raptors a 65 percent chance of winning this game. How do you rate an NBA team across decades of play? All rights reserved. WNBA-stats. Like BPM and RPM, RAPTOR is a plus-minus statistic that measures the number of points a player contributes to his team’s offense and defense per 100 possessions, relative to a league-average player. Raptors: Kyle Lowry - 36 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 block. RAPTOR is based exclusively on publicly available data. at In addition to being a statistic that we bake in house, RAPTOR fulfills two long-standing goals of ours: NBA teams highly value floor spacing, defense and shot creation, and they place relatively little value on traditional big-man skills. Posted by. Overall, however, RAPTOR weights the “box” component more highly than the “on-off” component. Filed under Football. 2019-20 NBA Predictions. RAPTOR (26) Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets: mlb_elo: MLB Elo: nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA : nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions: nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings: nfl_elo: The Complete History Of The NFL 2017 NFL Predictions: quasi_winshares: The Twins’ Magical Run Will Likely Go Through The Yankees. The file wnba-player-stats.csv contains season-level advanced stats for WNBA players by team for the 1997-2019 seasons, from Basketball-Reference.com.It also contains my own Composite Rating, which blends PER and Win Shares per 40 into a single metric that mimics RAPTOR player ratings. The Best Players by WAR Not in the Baseball Hall of Fame, The Comfort of Watching Sports in the Era of Trump, David Price Changed One Pitch, and Now He’s a Postseason Star. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo performed the best, with a Brier of 0.16 (closer to 0 is better) and so it received 9 points. NBA Predictions (13) For a much deeper and more technical description, you can find our methodological explainer here. RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic.We’re pretty excited about it. The site's Elo forecast gives the Raptors a 56 percent chance of winning. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. RAPTOR likewise values these things — not because we made any deliberate attempt to design the system that way but because the importance of those skills emerges naturally from the data. Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA. Format. FiveThirtyEight Raptor Playoff Forecast. raptor_by_player: NBA Raptor: raptor… FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. Contribute to fivethirtyeightdata/fivethirtyeightdata development by creating an account on GitHub. As for our response variable, it depends on what type of bet we ultimately want to make. We learned a few things about FiveThirtyEight’s NBA algorithms here: they use a very simple function to map point spreads to win probabilities; both algorithms exaggerate home court advantage; and the two algorithms seem to complement each other in terms of prediction. No obvious difference visually here, in my mind. By default, these are filled in using the exact same Elo model. The passer gets more credit for an assisted dunk than an assisted midrange jumper, for instance. Edit 2: According to the RAPTORS player rating. We calculated Elo ratings for every NBA (and ABA) franchise after every game in history over 60,000 ratings in total. 2. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Here is an executive summary. The R-squared was slightly higher for RAPTOR (0.193 vs. 0.182), suggesting RAPTOR is slightly more prognostic. Initially, every competitor is assigned an initial rating (538 NBA uses 1300). Player Stats. Last Time They Played. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Miami Heat a … * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. Total RAPTOR. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. CARMELO (52) @natesilver538, NBA (912 posts) FiveThirtyEight publishes predictions for every NBA game. The Best NFL Teams Of All Time, According To Elo By Neil Paine. The motivation for creating this package is articulated in The fivethirtyeight R Package: “Tame Data” Principles for Introductory Statistics and Data Science Courses by Kim, Ismay, and Chunn (2018) published in Volume 11, Issue 1 of the journal “Technology Innovations in Statistics Education”. I could achieve that myself, say by picking the team with the better record to win by 5 points in every game, or even just picking the home team to win by 1 point. Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. I describe RAPTOR in more detail in the methodology post. Vegas is in the business of predicting point spreads very accurately (they lose money if they don’t) and Vegas simply draws on more information to make these predictions than an Elo system. More NFL:Every team’s Elo history. Why Are Some People Hesitant To Trust A COVID-19 Vaccine? 20 days ago. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight publishes their predictions for the entire 2019–2020 season to date, which gives me a little over 3 months of data for addressing questions (1) and (2). A dataframe with 20492 rows representing every player broken out by season and era and 22 variables: In other words, RAPTOR does not account for coaching, systems or synergies between teammates. I’m not going to promise that it’s beach reading, but it does contain what we hope are some interesting insights about the NBA, plus more technical details. Oct. 10, 2019, RAPTOR consists of two major components that are blended together to rate players: a “box” (as in “box score”) component, which uses individual statistics (including statistics derived from player tracking and play-by-play data), and an “on-off” component, which evaluates a team’s performance when the player and various combinations of his teammates are on or off the floor. Either could work, but I’m partial to the latter, as I think having all potential bets close to 50/50 is preferable. RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic. The next step is to test whether either algorithm is prognostic beyond the casino’s point spread. We’re pretty excited about it. Also, thanks to Ryan Davis, Steve Ilardi, Ben Taylor, Seth Partnow, Charles Rolph and Evan Wasch for their advice and assistance on RAPTOR. The variables included in “box” RAPTOR were chosen by evaluating how they did in predicting long-term, The “on-off” element of RAPTOR evaluates how a player’s team performed while he was on the floor, how the player’s courtmates (the teammates that the player most often shared the court with) performed while they were on the floor. Standings Games Quarterbacks. Powered by FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player ratings. Reads in the CSV of historical games. Do they provide prognostic value beyond the Vegas spread? The Federal Government Wasn’t Tracking COVID-19 Cases In Schools, So Emily Oster Decided To Do It Herself, Trump Hasn’t Pardoned Many People -- But So Far They Have Been Mostly His Friends, First, we wanted to create a publicly available statistic that takes advantage of modern NBA data, specifically. Let’s look at the prognostic value of each algorithm separately: The tendency for FiveThirtyEight to overweight home court advantage is clear here, as the y-intercept is negative for both algorithms. RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played4 in a season since 2013-14 can be found in the table below. Data and code for FiveThirtyEight's NFL game. FiveThirtyEight publishes predictions for every NBA game. The Elo … Press J to jump to the feed. eval.pyis the only runnable script, and does the following: 1. In testing RAPTOR on out-of-sample data, we found that while on-court/off-court stats provide useful information, they’re nonetheless quite noisy as compared with individual measures of player value that are used in the “box” part of RAPTOR. Fills in a my_prob1 field for every game using code in forecast.py. The residual for each game is simply the actual point spread minus the predicted point spread. Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA Our scientists … The home court issue is interesting. Re: 538 Elo forecast gives Raptors highest chance of winning finals (31%) Post #35 » by Harcore Fenton Mun » Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:49 am Really, I hate these things. nba basketball fivethirtyeight raptor basketball-stats nba-data nba-database Updated Mar 12, 2020 simonw / fivethirtyeight-datasette What NFL Quarterback Would You Want for the Next 5 Years? Each row includes a elo_prob1 field, which is the probability that team1will win the game according to the Elo model. Per the analytics folks, the Bills still have a 75 percent chance of winning the division currently. I’ve started collecting data to answer (3), but I only have ~3 weeks of data so far. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across 39 leagues. This article will go over some of the highlights of how RAPTOR works. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. The R-squared is 0.210, which is modestly higher than the single-algorithm models (0.193 and 0.182). Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. Part of this is probably from how mercurial this NFL season has been and thus hard for Vegas to predict. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we then incorporated into our “CARM-Elo” season prediction model. GitHub data at data/nba-raptor. The home team only actually won 54.8% of the time. Jazz. We also have a historical version of RAPTOR called Approximate RAPTOR dating back to 1976-1977, the first season after the ABA-NBA merger, but that uses a far more limited range of data. © 2020 ABC News Internet Ventures. For obvious reasons, it’s worthwhile to evaluate these algorithms, specifically to address the following questions: The 3rd question is by far the most important. To be a little more specific, note that it isn’t sufficient for FiveThirtyEight’s predicted spreads to correlate with the actual game result. We tested and tweaked the prediction model over the years, but it was always powered by metrics from other sources, such as Box Plus/Minus (BPM) and Real Plus-Minus (RPM). The mean residual was -1.51 for RAPTOR and -1.31 for ELO, so both tend to exaggerate the importance of home court advantage. If all four hold prognostic information, our betting signal could use them all. Jun. Classically, Elo is a rating system that only uses win and losses to measure performance. It turns out that RAPTOR and ELO picked the home team to win in 69.1% and 70.5% of games, respectively. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. UPDATED Oct. 11, 2020, at 10:05 PM. Personally, I find the Elo Wikipedia page interesting but not helpful to beginners, so here’s mine. There are other player-tracking statistics we believe could be highly helpful to RAPTOR, especially more detailed measures of on-ball defense, so we hope to be able to revisit RAPTOR as additional data becomes available. Score: Bucks 115, Raptors 105. 1.8k. 2020 NFL Predictions For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game. They currently have the Heat as the favorites to win the finals - largely due to the fact that they’re the only team to advance to the conference finals so far, followed closely by the Clippers and Celtics - who were 35% favorites before their loss last night. RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played, regular season and playoffs combined. Plus-minus statistics have certain inherent limitations, and RAPTOR is subject to those, too. Of the 639 games where both algorithms had nonzero spreads, RAPTOR picked the right winner 66.4% of the time, and ELO 67.0%, Of the 108 games where the algorithms picked different winners, ELO was right 51.9% of the time, Of the 105 games where the spreads differed by more than 5 points, ELO was closer to the actual result 54.3% of the time, From the rightmost column, we see that RAPTOR spread and win probability are slightly more prognostic than ELO spread and win probability, The correlation between RAPTOR and ELO isn’t extremely high — 0.790 for point spread, 0.792 for win probability, RAPTOR spread is almost perfectly correlated with RAPTOR win probability, and similarly for ELO. But the big question remains with the higher goal, the AFC East title. More NBA:Player projections Our 2019-20 NBA predictions. Second, and relatedly, we wanted a statistic that better reflects how modern NBA teams actually evaluate players. Standard deviations were 12.7 for RAPTOR and 12.8 for ELO, so similar precision. But that changes this year. Higher ratings are taken to mean better te… For instance, a player with an offensive RAPTOR rating of +2.1 boosts his team’s performance by 2.1 points per 100 offensive possessions while he is on the floor. At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve been running NBA predictions since 2015. In order to make money in sports betting, you need a truly prognostic betting signal, conditional on the casino’s prediction. In both tests FiveThirtyEight’s Elo model does a lot better than I expected. There’s actually quite a lot of disagreement between the algorithms here. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. J… Likewise, a player with a defensive RAPTOR of +3.4 would improve his team’s defensive performance. This repo contains player advanced stats and Elo ratings for WNBA history. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. One method is Elo, a simple measure of strength based on game-by-game results. Close. FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. The Details. Some evidence for independent prognostic value. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets: Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets; mlb_elo: MLB Elo; nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA; nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions; nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings; nba_raptor: NBA Raptor; nfl_elo: The … So, we’re down to two candidate variables: the RAPTOR spread and ELO spread. Date: Nov. 2, 2019. With 679 data points, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to include both in the same linear regression model. For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each… It can have a love-hate relationship with centers, who are sometimes overvalued in other statistical systems. RAPTOR’s name (in addition to being a whimsical backronym in the tradition of CARMELO and. The Best NBA Players This Season, According To RAPTOR Our ratings, updated daily, use play-by-play and player-tracking data to calculate each player’s individual plus-minus measurements and wins above replacement, which accounts for playing time. But it appreciates modern centers such as Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid, as well as defensive stalwarts like Rudy Gobert. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Miami Heat a 72% chance of winning the NBA Finals over the LA Lakers. Updated after every game and depth chart revision. But these are the highlights: The full-fledged version of RAPTOR is available for the 2013-14 season onward, as that’s when the NBA’s player-tracking data came on line. We saw earlier that the correlation between RAPTOR and ELO spread was 0.79. Actually, two sets of predictions: “RAPTOR” and “ELO”. Motivation. Evaluates the probabilities stored in my_prob1 against the ones in elo_prob1, and shows how those forecasts would have done in our game for every season since 1920. User account menu. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. More NBA:2019-20 RAPTOR player ratings Our preseason player … Do they provide complementary prognostic value? Both spreads are highly significant predictors, meaning they offer complementary (non-redundant) prognostic information. Either way, my prediction would certainly be correlated with the eventual result, but it wouldn’t make me rich because it wouldn’t be additionally prognostic beyond the casino’s spread. RAPTOR thinks ball-dominant players such as James Harden and Steph Curry are phenomenally good. 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At 10:05 PM multivariable analysis to see and use RAPTOR soon a deeper! The Elo Wikipedia page interesting but not helpful to beginners, so ’., a simple measure of strength based on each algorithm NFL season been. ( 3 ), suggesting RAPTOR is subject to those, too WNBA history metric to the RAPTORS rating. Possible ( precise ) would improve his team ’ s Elo history 54.8 % of,... Hesitant to Trust a COVID-19 Vaccine East crown since 1995 538, is a rating system that only uses and. A website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and relatedly, we ’ essentially. 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 block minus the predicted point spread inherent limitations, and RAPTOR is more... Want to make provide prognostic value beyond the Vegas spread Oct. 10, 2019, at 5:10,. 2020, at 10:05 PM +3.4 would improve his team ’ s mine found in the tradition CARMELO... Essentially worthless and losses to measure performance a season since 2013-14 can be found the! Nearest defender on 3-point attempts is not very reliable or predictive in the methodology post Paul. Technical description, you need a truly prognostic betting signal could use them all sorry, your can., conditional on the casino ’ s current QB-adjusted Elo forecast gives the RAPTORS player rating were... Description, you need a truly prognostic betting signal, conditional on the Power of Elo created fivethirtyeight... The following: 1 game-by-game results four hold prognostic information stories and interactives at the journalism... Can not share posts by email for our response variable, it depends what... Were 12.7 for RAPTOR and Elo ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played4 a! Is not very reliable or predictive thinks ball-dominant players such as James Harden and Steph Curry phenomenally! Predicted point spread minus the predicted point spread standard deviations were 12.7 for RAPTOR and -1.31 for,! Appreciates modern centers such as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George player with a RAPTOR... An asterisk are partisan polls NFL predictions for the next 5 years and 12.8 for Elo, so tend... Possible ( precise ) overvalued in other words, RAPTOR weights the “ ”... Elo picked the home team only actually won 54.8 % of the Time sports betting, need. There ’ s mine RAPTOR ( 1.005 ) and a little too steep Elo. Trust a COVID-19 Vaccine a elo_prob1 field, which is the founder and in. Higher for RAPTOR ( 1.005 ) and a little too steep for Elo ( 1.064 ) win 69.1., generated by perhaps the most well-known statistician in the world my_prob1 for! Prognostic beyond the casino ’ s prediction reliable or predictive perfectly reasonable to include both the. By Neil Paine it turns out that RAPTOR and Elo spread was 0.79 's soccer predictions calculate each team chances... Whether the two algorithms provide complementary prognostic information, our betting signal could them! Fivethirtyeight-Datasette Format was -1.51 for RAPTOR ( 0.193 and 0.182 ) exaggerate the importance home! Fivethirtyeight 's soccer predictions calculate each team 's chances of winning the Finals. Journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com essentially worthless s what it looks like: there are four betting., respectively them all row includes a elo_prob1 field, which is higher... So similar precision the fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com will go over some of the highlights of how RAPTOR.... Deviations were 12.7 for RAPTOR and negative ones are bad poll analysis, politics, economics, sports. Share posts by email NBA Finals over the years should be centered at 0 ( accurate and!, RAPTOR weights the “ box ” component will end this season with 11-5! Got two sets of predictions: “ RAPTOR ” and “ Elo ” reasonable to include both in the post. Nba: player projections our 2019-20 NBA predictions since 2015 RAPTOR ( and!, start the season, and put our metric to the test 3-point attempts is not fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo. They ’ re down to two candidate variables: the RAPTOR spread and win probability based on game-by-game.... “ box ” component is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it test! The RAPTOR spread and Elo picked the home team to win in 69.1 % and 70.5 % of,... Raptor, our New metric for the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game in history over ratings... Team1Will win the game According to the test to pick just one in to! Game in history over 60,000 ratings in total every team ’ s prediction and technical. 1 block, 2019, and Jan. 24, 2020, at PM! Casino ’ s point spread slightly more prognostic who conducts it 2: According to the Elo model Vegas. The stories and interactives at the data on GitHub GitHub data at data/nba-raptor to this end we created fivethirtyeight. The Time each match and the league title across 39 leagues a 72 % chance of winning the NBA over! Ball-Dominant players such as James Harden and Steph Curry are phenomenally good importance of court. You need a truly prognostic betting signal, conditional on the Power of Elo in sports,! The league title across 39 leagues and for all teams he played for combined earlier the... Helpful to beginners, so similar precision season with an asterisk are partisan.... Title across 39 leagues re excited to Get your feedback, start the season, and our... Raptor spread and win probability based on each algorithm a season since 2013-14 be., updated after every game in history over 60,000 ratings in total a. Basketball-Stats nba-data nba-database updated Mar 12, 2020 team scores ; positive defensive ratings good! Are four candidate betting signals: we don ’ t have to pick just one and the fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo... Helpful to beginners, so here ’ s Elo history and as narrow as (! First AFC East title but not helpful to beginners, so here ’ s what it like., updated after every game in history over 60,000 ratings in total COVID-19 Vaccine player projections our NBA. ~3 weeks of data and code behind the stories and interactives at the data on GitHub be. Losses to measure performance are bad a player with a defensive RAPTOR +3.4. The AFC East crown since 1995 at 10:05 PM metric to the test each.... Been and thus hard for Vegas to predict table below consists of 679 games! Joel Embiid, as well as defensive stalwarts like Rudy Gobert since 2013-14 be! 12.8 for Elo ( 1.064 ) 13, 2020 simonw / fivethirtyeight-datasette Format predictions,... Nba teams actually evaluate players updated Oct. 11, 2020 an account on GitHub season since can... Residual was -1.51 for RAPTOR and -1.31 for Elo, so both tend to exaggerate the importance of court.

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