nankai trough earthquake prediction

Required fields are marked *, Research Outreach In 2012, the government released its estimates on the highest tsunami in case of a Nankai Trough earthquake. Satellite geodesy using electromagnetic waves enables the distance of the earth from the satellite to be determined precisely (onshore), but the position of the seafloor cannot be accurately determined by electromagnetic waves due to scattering and absorption of the waves by seawater. Lying a little further south is the Nankai Trough. It is predicted that the quake will cause a massive tsunami that could devastate the extensive coastline along the Pacific Ocean, from Shizuoka to Miyazaki (throughout central to west Japan). The positioning accuracy and frequency of the observations have been improved since the year 2000 and standards are among the highest globally. The Japanese government predicts that an earthquake of immeasurable scale will strike Japan along the Nankai-Trough within the next 30 years. Based on the estimates, it calculated the probability of tsunami of “at least 3 meters,” “at least 5 meters” and “at least 10 meters” hitting 352 municipalities in 24 prefectures from Fukushima to Kagoshima within 30 years. 00:01:45:18 The map zooms outwards, revealing the whole Pacific Ocean. Share: You can copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, Your email address will not be published. By clicking below to submit this form, you acknowledge that the information you provide will be transferred to MailChimp for processing in accordance with their Privacy Policy and Terms. United Kingdom This is the first time that the government has presented tsunami probabilities. AMDA Platform for Nankai Trough Earthquake Disaster Strategy In 1999, the likelihood of the occurrence of a great earthquake in the Tokai area in the period 2000-2010 was estimated to be in the range of 0.35–0.45. Two high SDR zones were also identified in which there are no historical records of previous earthquakes. Dr Yokota and his team’s data were able to reveal most previously unknown undersea regions, except for some of the areas directly adjacent to the Nankai Trough. Seventy-one municipalities in 10 prefectures, including Tokyo, on the Pacific coast could be hit by tsunami at least 3 meters high within 30 years if a huge earthquake happens in the Nankai Trough (see below), according to the estimated probability of tsunami by the government’s Earthquake Research Committee. An earthquake that is estimated to happen with in 30 years with a probability of 70% to 80% in the areas along the Nankai Trough, which stretches from Suruga Bay in Shizuoka Prefecture to the sea off Kyushu. ... the government’s earthquake-preparedness program was based on an assumption that it would be possible to predict the so-called Tokai quake that could hit the Pacific side of central Japan. along the Nankai Trough, not only in the Tokai region, as more than 70 years have passed since the last two Nankai Trough Earthquakes, the 1944 Showa Tonankai Earthquake and the 1946 Showa Nankai Earthquake (Figure 1). The tsunami probability on a regional basis, which was released Friday by the committee, shows that tsunami that destroy wooden houses could reach 71 municipalities in 10 prefectures, including Shizuoka, Kochi and Wakayama, with an “extremely high” possibility of 26% or higher. Below you can select how you’d like us to interact with you and we’ll keep you updated with our latest content. E: audience@researchoutreach.org. Further technology development is required to enable more detailed interpretation of phenomena and the interplate boundary condition, emergency observations, and observations immediately before and after an earthquake for disaster prevention. The distance between the surface acoustic transducer and each seafloor transponder is determined by acoustic ranging: i.e. In addition, the strong measures to be taken after the Tokai Earthquake prediction Available at: https://researchoutreach.org/articles/new-technology-for-earthquake-prediction-nankai-trough-japan (Accessed YYYY/MM/DD). Previous geodetic studies attempting to create a mapping of the SDR have been limited by the fact that the observation network was limited to land areas and so did not capture the full picture for the seafloor. The results of the calculation show that the probability become higher in areas with deeply indented coastlines. Experts believe there is a 70% to 80% probability of a severe Nankai Trough earthquake within 30 years. The observation system consists of a seafloor unit with multiple acoustic mirror transponders (devices for receiving and emitting an acoustic signal), and a sea surface unit with an acoustic transducer (a device for converting the acoustic signal into electric signals), a GNSS antenna-receiver and a dynamic motion sensor, to measure the attitude (tilt) of the survey vessel. 00:01:31:17 DR MARYANNE DEMASI: Just 900km south of Japan's island of Honshu, the Nankai Trough lies along the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 90% of the world's earthquakes occur. Despite the uncertainty of when such an earthquake will occur, local authorities are already taking action to prepare … These are generally referred to as Nankai Trough Earthquakes. By contrast, … Therefore, the speed of sound at each depth can be used to help create a profile of the sea water’s characteristics for research purposes. Currently, measurements are often taken using satellites or observations using a buoy known as an ARGO float. Today, with quake prediction as a science all but abandoned, the Tokai quake is being dwarfed by talk of the latest new threat — the feared Nankai Trough earthquake. Cleanup, rescue operations underway in Japan after severe rains kill over 200 people and strand thousands in the recent flooding and landslides in west Japan. The interseismic period data revealed the seafloor speeds resulting from the subduction of the Philippine Sea plate under the Amur plate. Thank you for expressing interest in joining our mailing list and community. Four phases and seven key tasks “Life-saving” phase Task 1 Disseminate timely information, and fully support evacuation from mega tsunami’s landfall in … But this time, it showed the degrees of urgency for tsunami that have a high possibility of occurring. If you are happy for us to contact you in this way, please tick below. The Nankai Trough Earthquake, predicted to occur in the Mie prefecture of Japan, serves as the case study. Seafloor geodetic constraints on interplate coupling of the Nankai Trough megathrust zone. A message on Twitter claimed: "This is no doubt evidence of a precursor to an earthquake. Hana Prefectures off the Pacific Ocean are likely to be hit by earthquakes of magnitude 7 and 6. Nankai Trough quake damage to cost $2.3 trillion. The relationship probably results from elevated pore-fluid pressure (the pressure of the fluid contained in the gaps between the particles within the rocks) and a complicated fracture network. He then worked at the Hydrographic and Oceanographic Department of the Japan Coast Guard. We optimized the loop kernel for velocity update and intergrid communication on a three-dimensional torus network. A Nankai Trough earthquake is predicted to occur in Japan, causing catastrophic damage over a large area. The reports stated that if a 9.0 earthquake occurred on the Nankai Trough… Dr Yokota and his team used their measurement techniques to calculate a sound speed profile roughly from the sea surface to the bottom in order to study the characteristics of the ocean water. The committee announced the tsunami probability calculation resulted in three phases in the order of urgency — “26% or higher” (extremely high), “6% or higher, but lower than 26%” (high) and “lower than 6%” (remain on alert). These are generally referred to as Nankai Trough Earthquakes. Temperature and salinity are often observed or modelled to help our understanding of the processes in the ocean. The last Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes occurred in 1944 and 1946 respectively. The Nankai Trough Earthquake, predicted to occur in the Mie prefecture of Japan, serves as the case study. The Nankai Trough … In 2012, the government released its estimates on the highest tsunami in case of a Nankai Trough earthquake. While the government estimates there is a 70 to 80 percent chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 quake occurring along the Nankai Trough within the next 30 … Info on Nankai Trough quake to be issued The new information is to come in 2 types -- emergency and regular. The Nankai Trough subduction zone between the Philippine Sea plate and the Amur plate has been the site of many interplate megathrust earthquakes – those that occur when one tectonic plate is forced under another by slip along the point at which they converge, known as the thrust fault. And if it is in the Nankai Trough, it might be a huge quake." Seafloor crustal deformation data along the subduction zones around Japan obtained by GNSS-A observations. A mega-quake and tsunami are forecast along the Pacific coast near central to western Japan. To be ready for a national crisis should the Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake occur, we are making every effort to promote various operations. We use cookies to gather data about how you use our site. Given the assumption that the number of patients If time changes can be detected, the detailed state before the earthquake can be known, and this will lead to great progress. Physical oceanographers study ocean currents and flows of water using observations and computer models. We improved the tsunami simulation code JAGURS, which is a paralleled version of URSGA code for a large-scale, high-speed tsunami prediction in the Nankai trough, Japan. Predicted Nankai Trough quake could cause 3-meter or higher tsunami in 10 prefs in 30 yrs, စီးပွားရေးနယ်ပယ်မှထင်ရှားမှုနှင့်ထူးခြားမှုများ, စာပေအနုပညာနယ်ပယ်မှကျော်ကြားသူများနှင့်ထင်ရှားမှုများ, Japan to incorporate carbon neutrality goal into law, CE: Hong Kong will continue to be an international city, Samut Sakhon Covid-19 cases shoot up by another 146, bringing the total number of new cases to 689, S. Korea, US need to work together in Asia but first set objectives: officials. Nature, 534(7607), 374. But it will still not be enough. According to the committee, it estimated about 350,000 tsunami patterns that could be caused by the Nankai Trough earthquake. west side of the Nankai Trough is called Nankai earthquake (Figs. More than 70 years have passed since the … By selecting any of the topic options below you are consenting to receive email communications from us about these topics. For details, see our. The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan has established a dense GNSS observation network called GEONET, which has detected interplate earthquake cycles and various slow-slip events on interplate boundaries. Kanto Earthquake in 1923 and the Nankai Earthquake in 1946. Your email address will not be published. Therefore, understanding the distribution of SDR in the zone is key to predicting the scale of future earthquakes and tsunamis. The committee has called on municipalities to use the estimates to strengthen their disaster prevention measures, while asking individuals to utilize the estimates to prepare for their evacuation. They total 71 municipalities in 10 prefectures, including all coastal cities, towns and villages in Kochi Prefecture. A national crisis should the Nankai Trough earthquake is very high highest tsunami in of! Which there are no historical records of previous earthquakes and the Nankai Trough earthquake, to! 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